US GDP growth in Q2 2026

If the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of real U.S. GDP growth for Q2 2026 is at least 1.5%, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by BEA. Settlement is based on the Advance Estimate GDP release published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), currently scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure (including those published in the Second Estimate or Third Estimate) will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the BEA does not publish the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of real GDP Growth on the Advance Estimate scheduled release date, the first figure officially published by the BEA for the Q2 2026 seasonally adjusted annualized rate of real GDP growth will be used for settlement (e.g., in the Second or Third Estimate). If no qualifying figure is published within three months of the scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous quarter with available data.